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Bitcoin Analysis: Kharidein, Baichein, ya Hold Karein 2026 Mein?
Bunyadi Nukta:
Bitcoin ka chaar saal ka "halving cycle" ab pehle jaisa asar nahi dikha raha. Market ki structure 2024 aur 2025 mein bunyadi tor par badal chuki hai, aur ab institutional investors (bare sarmaya kaar) aur ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) qeematon ko drive kar rahe hain.
Market Dynamics Mein Tabdeeli:
Cycle ab Muattal (Retired) hai: VanEck aur 21Shares ke analysts ka kehna hai ke halving cycle ki alamaati aehmiyat (symbolic importance) to hai, lekin yeh ab qeemat barhane wala engine nahi raha.
Khareedne Walay Badal Gaye: Ab retail investors (aam log) ke bajaye, ETFs, companies (jaise MicroStrategy), aur hakoomatein Bitcoin khareed rahay hain. Yeh "patient capital" hai jo lambay arsay tak rakha jata hai.
Volatility Kam Ho Rahi Hai: Ab qeematon mein pehle jaisi shadeed utaar-charhao (crashes) nahi hain. Bitcoin aik mature financial asset, yaani "digital gold," ki tarah behave karna shuru ho gaya hai.
Bull Case (Qeemat Barhne ke Imkanat):
Bare Sarmaya Kaar: Strategy (MicroStrategy) ke paas $58.9 billion ke Bitcoin hain. Tesla samait 11 deegar companies ne bhi $1 billion se zyada cash Bitcoin mein convert kiya hai.
ETFs ka Asar: Sirf 21Shares ke mutabiq, total Bitcoins ka taqreeban 7% pehlay hi ETF portfolios mein hai. Jab Morgan Stanley jaisi companiyan ETFs recommend karengi, to yeh ratio barhega.
Safe Haven Potential: Agar Bitcoin macro-economic masail ke khilaf gold ki tarah aik hedge ban jata hai, to $31 trillion gold market ka chota sa hissa bhi is ki qeematon ko bohat barha sakta hai.
Bear Case (Qeemat Girne ke Imkanat):
Centralization: Institutional activity ki wajah se Bitcoin ki ownership markaziyat (centralization) ki taraf ja rahi hai, jo is ke bunyadi maqsad (masses ke liye currency) ke khilaf hai.
AI ka Muqabla: Bitcoin miners ab AI computing ko side gig ke tor par apna rahay hain, jo resources (bijli, etc.) ko crypto mining se hata raha hai.
Safe Haven Proof: 2022 ki global inflation crisis mein, gold sirf 20% gira tha jabkay Bitcoin 77% gir gaya tha. Is waqt tak, gold ne behtar performance di hai.
Khulasa:
Bitcoin ki market badal chuki hai. Long-term investors jo volatility bardaasht kar sakte hain, un ke liye 5% se 10% portfolio allocation munasib ho sakti hai